Expected Value Calculator - Annie Scott Realty Group
Annie Scott Realty Group
Scenario Analysis

What is the statistically likely outcome?

Use probability-weighted scenario modeling to convert multiple market outcomes into a single expected value.

Why do real estate investors use the Expected Value (EV)?

Because it distills multiple potential outcomes into one weighted projection.

By assigning probabilities to base, upside, and downside scenarios, you can move beyond a single optimistic forecast and understand the statistically likely outcome of your investment.

Expected Value (EV)
Probability-weighted scenario and risk analysis tool.
Calculator · Expected Value

Scenario-weighted projection

Model base, upside, and downside outcomes with explicit probability weights.

Scenario 1
$
%
Scenario 2
$
%
Scenario 3 (Optional)
$
%
⚠ Required fields are missing.
Results · Live

Expected Value Analysis

Weighted scenario return with probability integrity checks.

Awaiting your scenarios

Enter values and probabilities, then calculate.

Expected Value (EV)
$0
EV
EV vs Base Case Gauge
Base Case
$0
Total Probability
0.00%
Weighted Scenario 1
$0
Weighted Scenario 2
$0
Weighted Scenario 3
$0
Weighted Scenario 1$0
Weighted Scenario 2$0
Weighted Scenario 3$0
Total Probability0.00%
Expected Value$0
-

Example & Formula · Investor Education

Expected Value (EV)

Probability-weighted scenario example for CRE outcomes.

Formula
Expected Value = Σ(Pi × Vi)
Pi = Probability of scenario · Vi = Scenario value
Step 1
Define Scenarios
$180k / $210k / $150k
Step 2
Assign Probabilities
60% / 20% / 20%
Step 3
Weighted Scenario 1
$108,000
$180,000 × 0.60
Step 3
Weighted Scenario 2
$42,000
$210,000 × 0.20
Step 3
Weighted Scenario 3
$30,000
$150,000 × 0.20
Step 4
Expected Value
$180,000
$108,000 + $42,000 + $30,000
© Annie Scott Realty Group LLCEstimates only · not financial advice

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